Know Who's About to Leave, and Who's Ready to Join

Your wine club is the engine of your DTC revenue. You invest in growing it, and you work constantly to protect it. But the signals that predict cancellation, or signal that a customer is quietly ready to join, have always shown up too late. You'd see the churn in a report after the member was already gone. You'd identify the hot prospect only after she'd left the tasting room without signing up.

Two new predictive features change that. Club Churn Prediction and Club Signup Prediction are now live for every winery on Commerce7, giving your team forward-looking scores on every member and customer so you can act at the right moment, not after it's passed.

Predictive scores for churn risk and club signup likelihood are now built into every customer profile, available in the query builder, dynamic tags, the POS, and WinePulse, with no setup required.

Intelligence That Lets You Get Ahead of the Curve

These two features share the same statistical foundation, and they work in opposite directions. One tells you who's likely to cancel in the next 30 days. The other tells you who's likely to join. Together, they give your team a clearer picture of what's coming inside your club.

Club Churn Prediction calculates a churn risk score for every active club member by drawing on 43 behavioral touchpoints across the Commerce7 platform: email opens and clicks, reservation visits, order frequency, club edits, skips, and more. Because it's built on the full customer journey, not just transaction history, it picks up early warning signals that a transactional system simply can't see. A member who's quietly disengaged looks very different from one who's still active, even if their last order was the same. The model is currently 74% accurate, and it improves continuously as more data flows in.

Club Signup Prediction applies the same framework to non-members. When a customer has visited multiple times, placed multiple orders, and engaged with your emails and website, they're exhibiting the behavioral pattern of someone who's about to convert. The model scores every customer in your database on that likelihood and surfaces it exactly where your team needs it, whether they're in the tasting room or building a campaign.

Here's what becomes possible with both scores in place:

• Churn risk alerts on member profiles: When a member's score crosses a meaningful threshold, an alert surfaces directly on their customer record so your team knows who to prioritize, without having to run a report.
• Targeted retention campaigns: Query for at-risk members in the query builder and build a campaign around them, a personal invitation to an upcoming event, a note from the winemaker, a reminder of what their membership includes, sent before they've made the decision to leave.
• Staff-ready signup scores in the tasting room: The Insights panel in Reservations and the POS flags guests with high signup likelihood before the visit begins. When a guest walks in with an 85% signup score, your team knows before she sits down. That's the moment to move her to the best table, arrange time with the winemaker, and personally invite her to join at the end of the visit.
• Dynamic tags by risk and likelihood level: Segment members and prospects by score tier, Very High, High, and build tailored outreach for each group so your messaging matches the level of urgency.
• WinePulse reporting across your full base: Surface churn risk and signup likelihood at scale in WinePulse, so you can track how your at-risk population is trending over time and measure whether your retention efforts are working.

No single moment defines whether someone stays in your club or joins it, but there's almost always a window where the right outreach makes a real difference. These scores give your team visibility into that window before it closes, so retention becomes proactive, and acquisition becomes intentional.

The result is a club team that spends its energy in the right places: keeping the members most likely to leave, and converting the customers most ready to say yes.

Club Churn Prediction and Club Signup Prediction are available to all Commerce7 customers. Both features are live now with no setup required. Log in to see scores on your customer profiles, or visit the query builder to start building your first at-risk segment.

Ready to see it in action? Book a demo.